By Mohsin Abdullah

When Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi announced that his party would not be a component of Perikatan Nasional even if the coalition is officially registered, he was asked by the media if that decision was due to the guilty verdict on Datuk Seri Najib Razak in the RM42 million SRC International case.

After all, the Umno decision was made two days after Najib was found guilty and sentenced to 12 years jail term and slapped with a RM210 million fine.

Remember also moments after the Kuala Lumpur High Court meted out the sentence, Zahid had told the media Umno would make a political decision in response to the guilty verdict.

This time when asked by the media if Umno not joining Perikatan Nasional was because of Najib being found guilty, he was coy, smiled and said, "Up to the media to interpret."

In announcing Umno's decision, Zahid also said his party would instead strengthen Muafakat Nasional with PAS but at the same time support the Perikatan Nasional government.

Taking all the things he had said, I would say one interpretation would be this. That Umno doesn't want to accommodate Perikatan Nasional, in particular Muhyiddin-led Bersatu, as it sees the party as weak and the coalition itself a liability which would spoil their chances in the next general elections.

Umno and PAS have repeatedly said they could win big in Malay-majority constituencies without Bersatu!

But by saying it would be supporting the Perikatan Nasional government, Umno wants its leaders who are already in the Muhyiddin administration to continue being ministers and deputy ministers and what-not and enjoy the perks that come with it.

As for Umno leaders outside the government, well, it would be beneficial to them by having their own people walking corridors of power in Putrajaya.

Take note that PAS is also singing the same tune as Umno, saying it will also strengthen Muafakat Nasional while standing firm with the Perikatan Nasional government, meaning the party also does not want to be a Perikatan Nasional component.

I would interpret that as both Umno and PAS want to have the cake and eat it too.

Dr Oh Ei Sun, senior fellow Singapore Institute of international Affairs, sees Umno's decision or rather Zahid's words to mean like this.

"What Zahid is saying is that Umno will be like GPS (Gabungan Parti Sarawak), not a part of Perikatan Nasional but individual MPs will support Muhyiddin as prime minister," says Oh.

According to him, what Zahid is saying is only a change of political arrangement but "of course this type of political intactness may or may not hold long because Umno is obviously not so thrilled that Muhyiddin, being the leader of a minor party, continues to be prime minister".

Oh opines that at some point Umno would like to install its own leader as prime minister but still somehow holds the government afloat which he says "is not an easy task".

Ilham Center CEO Azlan Zainal sees Umno's decision as an immediate political response to Najib's guilty verdict.

If that being so, political analyst Dr Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid says it gives the impression of blaming Muhyiddin for Najib's fate and portrays that Umno's erstwhile cooperation with Perikatan Nasional has hinged on hopes it would help vindicate its leaders currently charged with corruption.

According to Fauzi, the words of Zahid, or should it be Umno's decision to not be in Perikatan Nasional also show that Umno is "unable to shrug off its mentality of wanting to be able to call the shots in any coalition".

Ilham Center's Azlan concurs by saying should Umno and PAS be part of Perikatan Nasional, both parties would have to abide with all decisions together with Bersatu based on consensus.

But on the other hand, being in Muafakat Nasional would see Umno and PAS free to decide on their own and now that Bersatu is said to be keen on joining them, it's then Bersatu which must toe the line and follow whatever decisions made by Umno and PAS, says Azlan.

Zahid said Muhyiddin had made a request to bring his party into Muafakat Nasional. Bersatu supreme council member Datuk Seri Redzuan Md Yusof, as we know, has denied that and said Bersatu was invited to join the Umno-PAS alliance.

At this point it really doesn't matter whether Bersatu made a request or was invited. The fact is: Bersatu wants to be in Muafakat Nasional, as revealed by Redzuan.

However, according to Zahid, no decision has been made as to accept or not Bersatu to be part of Muafakat Nasional, this despite Bersatu having its president as the country's prime minister. Ironic, isn't it? Sad even?

Ilham Center's head of research Dr Yusri Ibrahim describes it as Bersatu placing high hopes on parties who seem to be not interested in them.

With Bersatu having only three to four percent Malay-Muslim support, Yusri does not see the possibility of Umno accepting Bersatu's "application" to join Muafakat Nasional.

Bersatu's brightest prospect of joining Muafakat Nasional, according to Yusri, is for PAS to "persuade" Umno into accepting it, failing which Bersatu will most likely fade away, says the Ilham man.

As Yusri sees it, Umno in all probability would want Bersatu to be dissolved and all its members joining Umno, just like what Parti Semangat 46 did many years ago.

(Mohsin Abdullah is a veteran journalist and now a freelancer who writes about this, that and everything else.)