By Mohsin Abdullah

It has never happened before where the Yang di-Pertuan Agong not acceding to a request of the prime minister of His Majesty's government.

But on Oct 25 Sunday, Yang di-Pertuan Agong Sultan Abdullah Sultan Ahmad Shah decided not to accede to prime minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin's request to declare a state of emergency.

"It essentially opens a new chapter in our constitutional arrangement," said political analyst Dr Oh Ei Sun. He went on to say, "Previously it was ambiguous as to whether Yang di-Pertuan Agong may exercise discretion in proclaiming emergency or need to follow the advice of the prime minister. Now a clear cut answer is provided by His Majesty's refusal."

And this, according to Oh, is yet another level of scrutiny against "seemingly undemocratic deeds by the incumbent government".

His Majesty's decision, reached after discussions with the Malay Rulers, was made clearly with the nation's and rakyat's interest and well-being at heart. As we know, Malaysians, worried to put it lightly, of the possibility of an emergency being declared, made appeals via numerous petitions that the intention of the Muhyiddin's administration be turned down.

Many felt a state of emergency would bring harm to the nation, not only economically but democratically as well. A state of emergency could see the Parliament suspended and the prime minister's position entrenched with wide ranging powers.

True, the government's reason for wanting a state of emergency is to combat the on-going COVID-19 pandemic. But most people see it more of a political ploy to stay in power than anything else, taking into consideration the precarious position the prime minister is currently in with the big question mark hovering over the status of his majority support.

Opposition MPs have been lining it up, so to speak, in demanding a motion of no confidence against Muhyiddin be allowed to be tabled for the prime minister to be tested in Parliament which will sit on Nov 2.

In the event the motion is indeed tabled, failure to defeat it could mean the prime minister's resignation.

Then there's Budget 2021. Failure to get it passed always means the prime minister having to step down.

Whatever it is, the Yang di-Pertuan Agong felt the government had done well in handling the pandemic and he believed in its capability under the prime minister to continue implementing policies and enforcing actions to curb the spread of COVID-19. Hence, His Majesty is of the opinion that for the time being there is no need for the monarch to declare a state of emergency in the country.

Now that the Yang di- Pertuan Agong has not acceded to his request, what could, or should, Muhyiddin do?

"Resigning would be the honorable thing to do, as the alternative of dissolving the Parliament is untenable amidst the pandemic," said political analyst Oh.

"But, we are not in chivalrous United Kingdom although we supposedly subscribe to their political set-up." said Oh.

However, in his statement released via the comptroller of the royal household Datuk Indera Ahmad Fadli Shamsuddin, the Yang di-Pertuan Agong also rebuked MPs who are politicking, and asked them not to proceed with any action that could threaten the stability of the government.

And His Majesty emphasized that Budget 2021 is of utmost importance to the people in combating COVID-19 and reviving the economy.

In fact, opposition leaders have earlier offered Muhyiddin options as a way out. Muar MP Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman has proposed a "confidence and supply" arrangement.

In the Westminster system, such an agreement is one whereby a party or the lawmakers agree to support the government on motions of confidence or supply (budget) bills.

DAP's Lim Kit Siang proposed that Muhyiddin be given until Nov 6 to determine whether it is possible for a confidence and supply arrangement or other options, so that "there could be an all of government and whole of society war against COVID-19 led by the 222 MPs."

However, Muhyiddin had opted to take the state of emergency route, prompting Umno MP Datuk Seri Nazri Aziz to say he would persuade his party colleagues to back Muhyiddin when the Budget is tabled "to prevent the PM from invoking emergency rule".

Nevertheless, according to Oh, the prime minister now "would have to try to form a unity government to prolong his political viability, but it remains to be seen to what extent his opponents would still trust him after his drastic attempt (to get the Yang di-Pertuan Agong to declare emergency)".

As for the Budget, Oh said, "Some sort of unity budget is likely but Muhyiddin would have to officially invite the participation and gather the input of the opposition."

According to news reports, Muhyiddin has invited all menteri besars and chief ministers to a meeting in Putrajaya on Oct 26 Monday. The agenda of the meeting cannot be ascertained. However the meeting was canceled at the eleventh hour.

In the words of Oh, at the moment Muhyididn's government survives but is a much weakened one. I agree, but this is not to say it was strong to begin with.

(Mohsin Abdullah is a veteran journalist and now a freelancer who writes about this, that and everything else.)