By Mohsin Abdullah

We know what a honeymoon is. A holiday taken by newlyweds immediately after their wedding to celebrate their marriage.

Without going into specifics (because everybody already knows), I'll just say in a honeymoon everything is nice. Like in a fairyland.

And when people say the honeymoon is over, it usually means it's time for the married couple to get back to reality, to meet the demands of everyday living and make things work. In short, face the reality of life.

But when Umno veteran Datuk Mustapha Yaakub was reported to have said that the honeymoon period for the Umno-PAS alliance "appears to be nearing its end", it makes me wonder.

Why? Because I would have thought that when the alliance known as Muafakat Nasional was made official with the signing of the Piagam Muafakat Nasional or National Cooperation Charter in September 2019, both parties would immediately start to work. Hit the ground running to make up for lost ground, meaning there would be no time for a honeymoon although leaders of both parties had referred to the alliance as a marriage of Umno and PAS.

Was there a honeymoon period for the two parties in the first place? Honeymoon in the true sense of the word? If there was, then it would mean time wasted. A great deal of time!

Whatever the situation might be, the honeymoon period is nearly over, according to Mustapha, because the two parties are no longer as intimate as before "especially after PAS received government positions".

But then Umno too received government positions. Perhaps the bone of contention is who gets what and who gets more.

Some political watchers opine that would play perfectly well for prime minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin in keeping Umno and PAS in check within Perikatan Nasional although the former is not in the coalition.

Back to Mustapha's statement that there is no more intimacy between his party and PAS.

"People say it's like newlyweds who no longer cuddle when sleeping," he was quoted as saying by MalaysiaKini.

As I write this, there has been no response to his remarks either from PAS, or Umno itself, but it would not be a surprise if both parties come up with a denial to say everything is fine and dandy, and everything is on track.

But if what Mustapha said is true, it would not come as a shock to many, including yours truly.

The signs are on the wall. It's always been there and it's getting clearer by the day, so to speak.

"Political observers have always believed the Umno-PAS cooperation is temporary in nature, and was established following major setbacks in GE14 in 2018," says long-time PAS watcher and political book author Mohd Sayuti Omar.

Using the "analogy" of a love story and marriage, Sayuti puts it this way: "It's like a widow and a widower who meet at a time of loneliness after their earlier marriages had ended in tatters. They flirted but effort to formally get married was thwarted as the love story was not made out of true love and sincerity, but rather a short-term strategy. And when a third party comes into the picture in the form of Bersatu who can gives rewards and power, PAS is passionate towards the new lover."

However, Mustapha is also quoted as saying the Umno-PAS relationship "is a bit distant now but there are no conflicts (yet)".

As I see it, he saying "yet" is telling.

Umno and PAS are not on the same page on a number of issues of late, and both are vocal about it.

PAS, despite being in Muafakat Nasional, is also in Perikatan Nasional. Umno's "displeasure" of Perikatan Nasional and the Muhyiddin-led Bersatu in particular is for all to know.

"Eventually," says Sayuti, "PAS will ditch Umno to be with Bersatu if Umno does not bow down to Bersatu. The question is, will Umno do that and accept Bersatu and be part of a bigger Perikatan Nasional coalition?"

It is everybody's knowledge Umno wants to rule the county again and in whatever coalition it wants to lead.

Bersatu is an Umno splinter party. Majority of its MPs now won in GE14 on BN/Umno ticket but jumped ship to join the then Pakatan Harapan government.

To Umno, that is unforgivable and it wants those seats back.

According to Sayuti, PAS will be more comfortable with Bersatu compared to Umno during seat allocation negotiations for GE15. Indeed, seat allocation is a big and potentially explosive issue as both Umno and PAS want to contest what they see as their "traditional" seats — seats which they had fought for against each other in past elections.

There are many other issues at play. And here's the thing: PAS cannot be in Muafakat Nasional and Perikatan Nasional at the same time. Umno can't remain outside Perikatan Nasional but with some of its MPs in the Perikatan government.

Umno and PAS can't have the cake and eat it. Not this time.

(Mohsin Abdullah is a veteran journalist and now a freelancer who writes about this, that and everything else.)