PETALING JAYA, July 9 (Sin Chew Daily) — Although Umno has retracted its support for Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, status quo remains and the government will not collapse, say political commentators.

Prof James Chin, director of the Asia Institute, University of Tasmania, said Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi's statement on retracting support would not carry any weight.

In an interview with Sin Chew Daily, Chin said Umno was divided and Ahmad Zahid had lost majority support in his party.

"There are two reasons why we don't need to view Zahid's statement seriously.

"Firstly, Ahmad Zahid can't force Umno ministers to quit as they are appointed by the prime minister. Even if Zahid were to sack the Umno ministers who defy party order, they would still retain their government posts.

"It is risky for Ahmad Zahid to sack the ministers who do not share the same view with him. For instance, if he were to sack Khairy Jamaluddin, Hishammuddin Hussein or even Ismail Sabri, they have grounds to join Bersatu so that Bersatu will become stronger.

"Ahmad Zahid is playing a dangerous game. But he is backed by Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak," he said.

Chin expected different camps of political parties to lobby for more support from now until the special parliament sitting.

There is still room for Muhyiddin and Umno to achieve a consensus, said Chin.

"We are likely to see some developments by the end of this month. Then we will be able to see if Muhyiddin still gets to remain in his position," he said.

Chin said the current scenario may be evolved into the formation of a new government led by Umno which will include Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR). The Prime minister will not be PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

"PKR can form a joint-government with other political parties based on its number of MPs.

"Although DAP also has large number of MPs, Umno has declined to have any connection with the party," he said.

Chin said it would be too early to forecast the outcome at this moment. 

He is more worried about the political stalemate whereby political parties may look to the King to intervene. 

"The King picked Muhyiddin to be the prime minister after meeting all MPs in February 2020. The political stalemate was resolved. But this is no good for democracy.

"It is not good to continue letting the King pick a prime minister," he said.

Political commentator Dr Wong Chin Huat said the Perikatan Nasional (PN) government would not collapse because of Umno's decision to retract its support for Muhyiddin.

This is because those against Muhyiddin were not equivalent to those supported him.

Dr Wong said Umno's decision may see the PN government becoming a minority government but it will not collapse.

The only way to change the government is to present an alternative alliance with majority support to the palace to form a new government, he said.

The opposition can overturn the government in three ways – table a no-confidence motion in Dewan Rakyat, disapprove royal assent and thirdly reject the Budget 2022.

"As long as the Dewan Rakyat speaker defends the government, option one is not possible while option two and option three will only be available in the Dewan Rakyat sitting and not this special sitting," he said.

Dr Wong said Umno is heading to a dead end by declining the proposal for Anwar to be prime minister and refusing to collaborate with DAP.

Although Umno's decision will see the Muhyiddin-led government become a minority government, it is unable to end Muhyiddin's tenure as prime minister. 

Another political analyst Assoc Prof Dr Jeniri Amir is of the view that Ahmad Zahid has become the lame duck in Umno. 

Some of the 38 Umno MPs and Umno minister would not abide by the party decision, he said.

Muhyiddin will still be prime minister even if Umno has retracted its support, he said.

Dr Jeniri told Sin Chew Daily after retracting its support, Umno should prove to the King a new prime minister endorsed by majority of Umno MPs.

However, Umno made a stand of not supporting Anwar and Pakatan Harapan. Umno is unable to form a new government by itself.

Unless Muhyiddin steps down himself, the issue of interim prime minister will not arise here.

"I don't think Muhyiddin will step down. He does not want to be seen as a failed leader. He wants to leave a legacy. Otherwise he would not have appointed Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri as deputy prime minister," he said.