By Prof Dr. Mohd Tajuddin Mohd Rasdi
When a journalist asked me how can BN fight as an opposition while not being the incumbent, my answer was will there even be a BN?
The recently completed Umno big meeting, to me, was a dismal failure for the 'real Umno'. Their rants and warning cries were 'laughed at' by the PN-Umno group.
The PN-Umno clusters should have resigned but none did so (except one GLC appointee).
The Supreme Council in Umno is no longer supreme as its face has been spat upon by the PN-Umno group.
The call to PAS to come back to the Muafakat Nasional agreement was also given the 'talak' or divorce, as PAS formalized with Bersatu in seat allocations.
MCA seems to have nothing to say and MIC so far cannot even see the relevance of BN. The latest news of the cancelled meeting between BN leaders was the final nail in the 'real Umno's' coffin.
So, everything is pointing to the idea that there will not be a BN as a serious contender in GE15. There is even doubt that there will be an Umno to begin with.
If the Umno elections are called, it would be a safe bet that the delegates will choose those who can fill in bank accounts rather than 'maruah dan sejarah'.
If Umno elections are called, it is safe to assume that the PN-Umno will win and Umno will take its seat as the 'second wife' to PPBM, as PAS now becomes the first wife.
PPBM will take the lion's share of the seats and winnable constituencies and leave the not so safe ones for PAS and Umno to squabble over.
PPBM members want to be elected as they are the king or big boss of the coalition.
The Sheraton Movers want to be elected in the winnable seats because they caused the PH's downfall.
The Umno and PAS minister clusters will also want their winnable seats. There really is nothing left for the Umno members in the coalition that I can see. After GE15, Umno will be relegated to a historical footnote.
Thus, will that be the end of Umno and BN? Well…if the present narratives of thinking that Umno is still a strong party, yes, that will be the end game scenario that I foresee.
However, there is another game plan that can thwart the above scenario and could pose a serious challenge to the PN pact.
If the Umno court clusters were to give way for the leadership of Tok Mat, then Tok Mat can literally write a new book on the BN.
What if Tun M and Pejuang were asked to be part of the new BN? What if Warisan throws in its weight behind the new Umno of Tok Mat? What if MUDA gets in the game and sides with the new BN? And finally, what if the Malaysian Advancement Party led by Waythamoorthy comes in also as part of the pack?
In a sweep, we now have a multicultural BN led by a strong Malay force with the young people ready for the battle.
PH, as I have said before, is a lost cause. As long as Anwar makes himself the objective of GE15, that pact has absolutely nowhere to go.
I predict that PH will win no more than 50 seats with DAP having the majority and Amanah totally wiped out.
In this manner, the new BN can dictate terms as it can put up a strong opposition to PN.
The PN only has PPBM, PAS and a weak Umno gang with MIC, MCA and Gerakan as their 'servants' or hamba abdi.
Hadi made it pretty clear that non-Muslim partners must be 'moderates' so that they can kowtow anytime and every time to PAS' version of an 'Islamic Malaysia'.
The parties in Sabah and Sarawak are a funny lot. They keep saying they do not support any extremism of religion in Malaysia because it is the problem specifically to the Malayan Peninsular.
The Sabahan and Sarawakian politicians want their MA63 and nothing else.
Well… these Sabahan and Sarawakian people are pretty naïve to think that Islam-dominated politics will stay contentedly in the Peninsula. That narrative will cross the South China Sea in force in a mere three years' time because of YouTube and social media.
In conclusion, the old BN is dead and the old Umno is also in ICU waiting to die.
Unless the non-court cluster members of Umno take the new political vaccines, they will never be able to protect themselves from the money-led politics of the general election.
In 2018, PH managed to defeat the money-led BN. In GE15, the New BN can easily defeat her enemies whoever they are.
A new BN coalition led by a new Umno leadership is the only true contender to a powerful PN that wields the power of money and the Emergency declaration. No one else is even close to being a worthy alternative in this battle.
(Professor Dr. Mohd Tajuddin Mohd Rasdi is Professor at a local university.)